SNDE in far stronger liquidity position than LONE (assuming no change to BB) ... per Q3.
And forecasted to get even stronger ....
Hard to see a "liquidity event" for SNDE, even if their BB was reduced (which I would not expect to see) and Dimmit sale has no effect on BB as has been stated multiple times by company. This should give a considerable cash buffer for SNDE to execute their noted "15% growth bookend" AND still be FCF breakeven or better (dependent on capital allocation timing ... now appears to be a good time to give the green light to secure the hedges and plan the drilling). Looking at hedging in the Q3 presentation (2020 = 1,686,000 Bbls) on a 65% oil basis that implies ~7,100 boepd of production. On the flat basis of 13,400boepd at 80% hedging and 65% oil that needs about 7,000 bopd of hedges (~2,500,000 Bbls) ... expect that SNDE will have and continue to layer in their hedges.
Taking all that into account, while I'm a buyer of neither, SNDE is in a better position the LONE and LONE is rapidly becoming a binary bet (over leveraged if PF need to be repaid in cash) ... they will benefit from a high oil price but then so does everyone else (the old rising tide argument). Who benefits more than their peers is the question.
Agree that Trump is not very bright (orange yes, bright orange no). Don't want oil prices to the too high as global economy is not exactly "robust".
@Mirabiledictu1 ... I'm still working off the $5.5M - $6.5M per well inclusive of infrastructure and normalized to avg lat of ~5,500 feet ... if that makes sense (so 8 wells of 11,000 feet laterals equals 16 wells of 5,500 feet)
