SEA 0.00% 16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

I think at neutral demand / supply you have $50 -$60 oil From...

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    I think at neutral demand / supply you have $50 -$60 oil

    From what I can see, demand and supply are in equilibrium now (albeit manufactured position through massive supply cuts). I think what causing lower than equilibrium price is that speculators that stored oil are selling it (I.e. inventories). The good thing is storage is expensive, so they want to flood the market, or only sell at a higher price.

    Given where US demand is, I think $30 Oil is seen in next few days. I think we see $35 -$40 in June when Saudi next increase cuts.

    I think people are incorrectly seeing the global fallout in airlines and attributing it to destruction of oil - as mentioned all aviation is only 8m, and not all aviation has been halted.

    I (maybe with optimism bias) believe the oil price is disconnected to the market. If oil is only$25 because that's where global demand is at, then it's not correct that equity markets are where they are.

    Or equity markets are correct, and therefore oil will have a rapid demand recovery.

    I think it's in between both, but think we see 30 next week, followed by 40 by June and then upward as economy recovers....


    My thoughts only (And probably too optimistic as usual)...
 
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