Think its going to bounce around the $20s for a little while until it finds it daily volume average.
Concur on Q4 and Q1 .... and here's my prediction for 2020, not based on SNDE price or oil price.
I see a "merger of equals" with no acquisition premium occurring with .... wait for it .... PVAC (bet y'all thought I was going to say LONE). While I say "merger of equals" my thought is PVAC acquires SNDE but keeps the SNDE name (and ditches PVAC and the tainted CH11 restructuring associated with it (as well as a stupid attempted merger with of all companies DNR)) and most of PVAC mgmt run the combined company.
PVAC is a little over double SNDE so in a merger lets say SNDE shareholders end up owning circa 30% of the combined company.
| SNDE | PVAC | Combined | SNDE % |
| BV Total Assets | $864 | $1,212 | $2,076 | 41.6% |
| BV Total Liabilities | $484 | $695 | $1,179 | 41.1% |
| BV Equity | $380 | $517 | $897 | 42.4% |
| Balance Sheet BV items as of 30th Sep 2019 for both SNDE and PVAC |
|
| SEC PV-10 at Dec 31 2018 | $1,110 | $1,769 | $2,879 | 38.6% |
| Net Debt | $363 | $544 | $907 |
|
| Net Debt LTM Adj EBITDAX | 2.5X | 1.6X | 1.87X |
|
| 2019 est EBITDAX | $145 | $340 | $485 | 29.9% |
| 2019 Production boepd | 13,500 | 27,500 | 41,000 | 32.9% |
| %Oil | 65% | 74% | 71% |
|
| Cash Operating Cost $Boe | $13.83 | $11.88 |
|
|
| Adjusted EBITDAX/Boe | $28.61 | $32.64 |
|
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| Todays MVE | $155 | $457 | $612 | 25.3% |
| Todays EV | $518 | $1,001 | $1,519 | 34.1% |
While the BV items put SNDE at circa 40% the operational view in more like 30% and the PVAC production is higher margin (definitely more oily) and lower cost. PVAC is hedged at lower % volume of production and so has greater upside to oil price (and obviously greater exposure to downside). Both PVAC and SNDE are pure play EFS and most of acreage is HBP. As a combined entity there are operational efficiencies to be gained.
For argument's sake (not that I'm going to be drawn into one) if PVAC bought all SNDE common stock for $155M and assumed all debts, SNDE stockholders own ~25% of combined entity (so 30% noted above is a bonus due to SNDE to yet find its price footing).
PVAC, at $30/share, could easily issue 5.2M shares as currency to acquire all outstanding stock of SNDE. Currently ~15,123,128 shares outstanding. So its circe 2 PVAC shares for every 3 SNDE shares roughly speaking.
And if you started with say 300,000 SEA.AX (at say 33.333 cents cost basis = AUD$100,000) you ended up with 3,000 SNDE (which at $21 is ~$US63K (currently worth AUD$90,500 so the strengthening Aussie dollar isn't helping) you'll now end up with 2,000 PVAC which at $31 is ~$US$62K .... so while less overall ownership and shares in the new combined company it is a stronger overall company.
This of course is pure speculation and just my opinion, but I think it has a fair chance of happening.
This slide was in PVAC's Sep presentation to Barclay's Energy Conference but not in the most recent presentation at
Now IMO we can exclude
CRZO (which is undergoing "merger of equals" with CPE)
ESTE (mostly Permian now and not EFS focused)
MGY (mostly Austin Chalk in Giddings Field focused and only a little in the EFS formation)
which leaves only LONE and SNDE in the peer comparison and LONE's balance sheet is a little messy due to preference shares when compared to SNDE.
Anyway, good luck. Might just hold remaining SNDE I have outside of SMSF and take a punt on PVAC ....
