personally i dont want to see an increae in sundance rbl.Idea...

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moremoneyplease

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06/01/20

04:03

Post #: 42237753
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Originally posted by cmonaussie: ↑

The BB redetermination question remains unanswered still ... does it not??? It was due shortly after redomicile meeting I thought.

What I have seen is that LONE got their November redetermination completed on Dec 23 ... reaffirmed at $290M
I guess the good news is it did not go down ...
The bad news is that LONE would be almost out of money (if I go merely on the Sep Qtrly, they are drawn $245M on $290M leaving ostensibly $45M but then after adjusted for Working Capital Deficit (net of derivatives) I make it closer to ~$12M
Will know soon enough ... Mar 15 is the normal date by which year end (10K) needs to be filed.

Will there be a "liquidity event" for LONE early in 2020?? Hope not and oil price rises in Dec & present tension may save them and improve their hedges as well. Have to rely on LONE mgmt Q3 remarks of "Today, we believe that 2020 target can be achieved by drilling between 13 and 19 gross wells and 12 to 16 net wells at a reduced cost of between $90 million and $115 million. Both cash are yield free cash generation ...". Not to dissimilar to SNDE

Might well be M&A on the cards for LONE if they aren't disciplined enough to keep with cashflow (they certainly don't appear to have sufficient liquidity for any aggressive drilling plan).

SNDE looks in better shape presently ... but would like to have the gaps filled in and a 2020 operations plan put out.

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personally i dont want to see an increae in sundance rbl.

Idea being to pay down debt and not to tempt management with extra liquidity - snde fine at moment and even better if +CF and a rising oil price.

Iran issue maybe more serious and could lead to another spike on retaliation and time to lock in some 2021 hedges over 60$ and 2020 hedges near 70 - i know people may not see that happening but iran could be a very big disaster but great for oil price.

oil premium needs to kick in - lets see what happens rest of jan but i say if there is ever a month to see where energy stocks head now is a good opportune time. - we might find insto selling down some sectors and getting back into energy - i not saying happen overnight but real possibility here and not just on Iran issues - watch sector performance closely

trump is a fool........ just thought id throw that in bye now

SEA Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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