snippets from my weekly stock report, page-9

redbacka, ok ok.

Reflecting on the effort you put into your post it is only fair that I justify my response, so this is why I think it is highly unlikely that our market will be up tomorrow :

I expect it will open green as we shed a few % on Friday in anticipation of the DOW tanking, the fact that it didn't means we will have to make some back on the open imo BUT it will quickly stray to focussing on what the DOW will do Monday night as per usual on a Monday with our market. I doubt we will hear anything regarding bailout because it will be Sunday there tomorrow and we will have to wait until Tues. If the Fed doesn't come to the rescue Monday(US time) it will be risky holding overnight Monday(our time) OR a good move if the big 3 are bailed as Wall st will rally you would think.... Hope that makes sense :)

Your comment being self evident regarding the futures up and DOW up, sorry but that means absolutely nothing. Please go back over the last month and post back letting me know how many times we have followed Wall sts lead from Friday? 1 in the last 6 I think. Believe me I know as I have been excited to see the DOW up on Sat morning only to be shattered on Monday on our market. Last week was an exception.

"That comment is just too silly for words. You're saying we're going up because if we didn't we'd go to zero. Right - we're going up because if we didn't we'd go down. That's about as self evident as they come. But - the stock market to ZERO?"

Don't take the zero comment literally redbacka, I am not a dill as you probably think I am. What I meant was that if the US market kept reacting to bad news as it did in Oct, Nov then it would be back to 87 levels. The s&p500 lost 12 years on its recent low. My point was simply that imo it needed the rally from the last low because (again imo) in the weeks to come it will revisit these lows. Smart money knows this and has known it since the last lows. Therefore the 20% gain in the s&p since its lows will be wiped off and indeed go lower. If the recent rallies had not occurred the s&p would fall to 700 in coming weeks. Hard to explain my theory on a computer but I hope that I have made enough effort to justify my comment which on reflection was a bit blasé!

"I stand by my sentiments in my posting. We'll see who is right."

I really HOPE you are right believe it or not!

"Of course there is poor news to come out. So what? The news of Friday night was B A D. The American market rallied."

Get this straight, Wall st did not rally on bad news friday. It is stalling because it is uncertain about whether the Fed will come to the rescue of the "small 3" :)- You can't tell me that if the Fed don't rescue that the DOW won't crash?? Common.

"Stock markets precede economic news. A rise in the stock markets can be expected before the economy bottoms"

No joke! Thats my line! As I have posted several times now. If the auto makers are bailed I would not be surprised to see the "bottom in" BUT if they don't get bailed it will revisit recent lows.

As a last sentiment explanation (which I feel is warranted), next week results from Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs are released and from all reports they are horrible, i.e. hefty losses. My opinion is that these losses have been priced into the market as both company sp's have come off substantially in recent weeks. I just feel the recent gains have come about because the market has priced in the auto makers bailout. Again.. if they don't get bailed then those gains will be reversed and I feel that Dec GDP in the states has not been all together priced in and could bring the markets to new lows in the coming weeks.

I hope I'm wrong as I am no doom & gloomer, just a realist who has woken up and smelt the cheese.

Good luck, sincerely