snippets - week ending 11/12/09, page-9

Spott, the price of the 30 year bond is close to breaking down. What will happen if it does, it means that interest rates will invariably rise regardless of what the Fed is trying to do. This in turn leads to higher funding costs and more pressure on the over leveraged consumer. You can then kiss any economic recovery goodbye. If interest rates rise, the USD will not go into freefall, the only thing I can see going into free fall will be equities as the USD carry trade is unwound.