So called manipulation, slow going, page-8

jordy

Good post. I'm not sure that its accumulation but more likley shorters at work or an interested party (or their agent).

On the realistic valuation topic .... I agree that $1 is a big stretch in the current environment. Kosmos is one comparison but Hardman is another that people here are more familiar with. HDR hit a peak price as production neared of around $2.50 and a MC of around $1.8 billion and was taken over at $2.02 and MC of $1.5 billion. And that was on Chinguetti (120mbbls) and Tiof (gas and hard to extract oil) and good prospects in Uganda.

SNE alone thus far at 330mbbls (468mbbls according to RISC) is already 3-4 times the size of Chinguetti which should more than compensate for Tiof + other Mauritania and Uganda assets. So IMHO a takeover near-term (after an assumed successful SNE-3 and upgrade to at least RISC's 468mbbls) could be at around that level (i.e. MC of $1.5 billion) given all the other prospects already defined plus Fan-1 (being another Jubilee?). That would be a share price of around 35-40 cents. So an offer could come in at say 20-25 ... with an increase towards 35 as a sweetener. Hence we need to hang in there a lot longer (1+ years) to prove up the buried hills and other shelf prospects (and the fans?) to get anywhere near $1 ..... IMHO.

Highly speculative and I'm not necessarily expecting a T/O offer near-term ... but all of us have been encouraged to expect one by our Chairman and Cath for that matter. First of all we have to get good results at SNE-3!!!! Then the action could heat up. Then we need the JV to release a good sized upgrade and talk about unofficial or better still official DoC.

But its worth remembering that even if SNE-3 flows are not spectacular they may well be "as expected" given the sands that are being tested. When worrying about what news we will hear in the coming week (as I do) I reassure myself with the logic that says "If SNE has been recently glowingly described after drilling SNE-1, drilling and flow testing SNE-2 (with spectacular success) and then drilling to TD SNE-3 .. as a "large world class oil field" ... there's only a small likelihood that this will be significantly changed by results out of SNE-3. If they didn't encounter a good oil leg and the sands as expected in SNE-3 Cath would have not made these statements or continue on to talk at length about DoC requirement and moving to production. If flows or connectivity are say a little under the market's expectations the reality is that just means a couple more wells in the economic modelling which is not a game stopper ... once again IMHO.

H