So confused.., page-4

Hi Asterox,
I think it can be mainly that one guy. Or at least, the share price's inability to get past 4 cents is based on investors knowing he wants to sell. He's got a huge holding, and sold in bulk in the past. As I said, the company should try and explain why he is selling (if they are able).
Interesting to note, however, the big seller seems to want at least 4 cents. The rest (today) looks like a bot selling small amounts, probably with a longer run accumulation strategy, mixed with some panicked/impatient small holders.
Just have to re-iterate a few critical points to make sure people (if they sell) do so for good reasons (not out of panic):
- the drill has met expectations at every stage (i.e. the expectations that informed Alcoa's decision to invest in Warro 5 and 6).
- in some case expectations have been exceeded, namely, the 50% larger gas interval than expected, which led to subsequent resource upgrade.
- thus far, the major risk based on previous drills (i.e. water ingress) has been significantly mitigated.
- as Marxist has put very clearly, the frac is a small frac for testing purposes, and is flowing well in its own right. When they go back and do a full frac (of the interval that proved much large than expected) we can expected a proportional increase in flow rates.
- and to counter the scaremongering, this thing does not need to flow at 10 million cubic feet a day to be economic, as the sensitivity analysis provided in a previous post demonstrates (and downloadable from TSV website pointed out).

This, of course, does not mean that we have proven commerciality yet. Still a lot of water to go under the bridge. But given we were trading at above 5 cents in November, that we are exploring for gas (not oil, whose price has plummeted), and that several risks have been significantly mitigated since then (i.e. wells are flowing well without large volumes of water) the share price should be at least 5 cents now or greater (i.e. even after accounting for ongoing risks).

It seems crazy to me that someone who held TSV in November (or for the last few year) would sell now, just when we are getting to the pointy end of things. Its always a roll of the dice with explorers, but it seems crazy to pay the entry fee then pull out (and lose half your money in the process) before the dice is even rolled, and when the odds are improving every day that things "go to plan".