>Any thoughts about why the rise?
Yes
Now that the tax year is done. People who need to sell ELD to balance losses for the year are done(*1). People who re balance their portfolio before the end of the tax year are also done(*2). So that just leaves the buyers. Less selling, same amount of buying: Price goes up. Obviously we could be set up for the fall. But with COVID in the US hitting 50K today (*3) and clearly in a second bigger wave (crest of first wave was 32K new cases, peak) and the fact that humans need to eat means Elders is a "risk off, safe haven" share running at a PE of just over 15. Which for an ASX200 share is reasonably priced. Added to the fact that apart from Victoria, Australia seems to be a covid free nation, things are looking pretty good.
Scomo, talks about spending big on defense. Defense from whom? If it's China, our biggest trading partner, this does not bode well for mining. Before the once in 200 year mining boom, how did we (Australia) trade with the world? Tourism? Not much of that at the moment with the borders closed. Education for foreign students? No. Manufacturing? Don't make me laugh. The only thing left is agriculture and possibly gold.
The great thing about Elders is that if agriculture does boom, with the fresh rain and covid free Australian workforce, then farmers will do well. Elders will concentrate that wealth by supplying the farmers. The people who make the money in a gold rush are not the punters who mine, but the people who sell the picks and shovels. Elders is selling the picks and shovels.
** If anyone has a counter claim about Elders more than happy to hear it. After all I have shared.
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(*1) You sold out some loss making shares, You have an end of year report coming up. It makes sense, after all you have to do a report for the tax man anyway. Why not take advantage of your rising ELD shares and sell? You know you will kick yourself if they drop. Of course the problem with this is that you are not riding your winners and cutting your losses. But it does sooth away that red ink so you can start with a fresh sheet.
(*2) Your portfolio is 50% agriculture, 50% energy. Over the last tax year your agriculture has doubled and your energy stocks have halved.
Now your ration is 1:4 not 1:1. You are no longer "diversified" and the tax man who audits your SMSF will be wagging his finger at you. So you sell agriculture and buy energy. It's not a bad strategy as by definition you are selling "expensive" agriculture stocks and buying "cheap" energy stocks. So buy low, sell high? That's how we are supposed to invest right? Again you are not riding your winners and cutting your losses.
(*3)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
(20min delay)