MSB 4.66% $1.13 mesoblast limited

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    "Plus I did say that a fund raising seems unlikely. The reason is about timing about getting to market earlier. Others have dealt with this more fully and that view stands as reasonable. Madamswer even gave ground on it."

    If I am to be quoted I insist that outright lies are not told.

    My position on the company's underfunded position has not changed since I first commenced posting on this stock almost a year ago.

    Let me re-cap what I have said before so that there can be no more lying about it by anyone:

    - On 30 December 2014, MSB had a cash balance of A$149.2m

    - MSB has been consuming around A$30m per quarter over the course of 2014.

    - Even a prioritisation of programmes in December half 2014 is unlikely to see quarterly capital consumption fall to much below $30m given a large component of MSB's expense base is denominated in US dollar terms and the Australian dollar has depreciated significantly against the US dollar.

    - MSB is likely to end the current quarter with around A$120m in cash

    - MSB typically has between $25m and $30m in Current Payables and Current Provisions, which means that MSB will need to retain - at a minimum - liquid capital resources of this amount to service these current liabilities.

    - This means that the quantum of MSB's cash that is available for purposes other than current liabilities such as payables and provisions is around A$120m less A$25m, which is approximately $100m

    - At a quarterly cash consumption of $30m/quarter, MSB will therefore need to have secured supplementary funding by the end of the 2015 calendar year.

    - Even if the cash consumption could be reduced to $25m/quarter, MSB will still need to have secured funding before the end of December 2015, due to the fact that January tends to be a month that fund domestic fund managers are out of circulation, and February has them pre-occupied with reporting season.

    So, contrary to some patently false assertions that have been made by Dolcevita, I remain of the view that MSB is underfunded to the point of commercial sustainability and will need to raise capital within the next 9 months.

    The company's CFO has confirmed that an equity raising is one of the things that is being considered.

    I daresay that the broader market has come to this view as well, judging by the ongoing underperformance of the stock, and the fact that there has been net movements on the share register from large to small holders over the past 2 years.
 
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$1.13
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