re: so much for those going short..ncp..corrupt's
Ok ....I must admit to a slight lack of humility but anyway this is how i picked NCP as pretty much a certainty to go up not down....I don't always take this forum seriously but my trading very much so....
1. I read every book i could get my hands on for a year solid with no trading at all...
2. I then built a trading system that took me about a year that gives me buy/sell signals for the top 200 stocks on the asx and all the worlds major indices ...the system is able to quantify exactly when to buy and sell or wait...using a combination of swing charts, channel breakouts, directional trends, and a mix of my own theories...Any good system should be able to give you a clear testable signals that you can then model to know how many times on average it likely to be correct, what returns to expect on average, how many trading oppurtunities it presents, average holding period, maximum drawdowns and so on. This all needs to done without curve fitting or manipulating the system to fit past data. And of course a good stop loss policy so the numers are always in your favour. The system both trends and fades the market.
3. In this case a clear buy signal on Feb 26th $12.10 was given with about an 80% probability of going up ...trading is all about numbers ...if you know your numbers know your edge and manage your money correctly you have to win overall.....I'm running a trailing stop on NCP so a profit is already locked in via a CFD but no sell signal so far so i'll still be holding.
The trick is the edge of course, all the worlds best traders have an edge over the rest so i can't tell exactly how the system works but it isn't rocket science just lots aof reading and hard work ...usually o good start in any endevour.....
Good luck out there ....currently short QBE as well.
