I'll be buying tomorrow if this weakness sustains. I did a DCF model the other week and see value at $1.69. If an acquisition is made, this will increase the terminal value - market is hesitant given a cash balance doesn't do anything.
WACC 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5 Value DCF method using 10% WACC FY2023/2024 FY 2024/2025 FY2025/2026 FY 2026/2027 FY 2027/2028 EBITDA/Operating Profit $655.79 $673.64 $468.99 $423.44 $291.07 NPAT $427.40 $491.84 $505.23 $351.74 $317.58 $218.31 Present Value NPAT $427.40 $447.13 $417.55 $264.27 $216.91 $135.55 Exit Multiple Approach PV of NPAT $1,481.41 Terminal EBITDA (Operating Profit at 2027/2028 $291.07 Exit Multiple 6 Terminal Value in Year 5 $1,746.45 Implied Growth Rate -2.22% Negative is correct, as it is assumed profits decrease without another mine PV of Terminal Value $1,084.41 Enterprise Value $2,565.82 Shares on issue 1367986850 10% margin of safety PV per share $1.88 $1.69
Happy to be criticized + give any additional info. Exit multiple is the only up in the air number at the moment (for terminal value analysis).
Funny enough when I calculated the WACC, it was 9% which actually gives a higher valuation.
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I'll be buying tomorrow if this weakness sustains. I did a DCF...
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