Stephen Bartholomeusz on Business Spectator seems to think it is a vote in the iron ore market / price, despite it being a strange, hostile bid from a party that may have been able to negotiate without going hostile.
I am mystified by the goings on in iron ore currently:
a)If the price goes lower surely higher cost and lower grade producers fall by the wayside (Chinese, Canadian etc) leading to a floor in prices?
b)Will the $A fall to assist, and if so, when?
c)Will / would the majors limit expansion to assist pricing?
d)To what extent does China play games to destabilise the iron ore market?
e)Depending on who you read port inventories are up but some say this is not as simple as it sounds.
f)What will the investigation into Chinese financing arrangements around iron ore uncover, if anything? What effect will this have on prices?
g)Who / why would anyone lend money ($Billions!) to Roy Hill if they thought the iron ore price would be under US$100 / t for the bulk of the project?
h)BCI was established when the iron ore price was under $40/t. What was the contingency if prices did not lift from there?
i)If iron ore prices remain soft and possibly get weaker, how will the Australian economy cope given it is the single largest export we have? A $1 falll in the IO price means $300M foregone in tax revenue pa.
j) Will China stimulate?
Puzzling times.
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