On Beacon Minerals $BCN.ax Reviewing last Q results see Production • Gold production for the quarter was 6,183 ounces • Mill throughput of 206,660 dry tonnes • ROM ore stockpiles of 212,000 tonnes (containing 6,296 ounces) • June quarter production guidance is 6,800 to 8,000 ounces Financial and Corporate • Quarterly gold sales of 6,515 ounces at an average sale price of $4,520/oz • Sale receipts of $29.45 million for the quarter ended 31 March 2025 • Closing cash of $20.70 million as at 31 March 2025 • Bullion on hand/in transit of 990 ounces at 31 March 2025
So my guess on Q1 thread pretty much nailed Q1, so what will Q2 be like?
1. Guidance is 6,800 to 8,000 ounces = 7,400 mid; go a little bit lower and call it 7,200 for Q. In Aud gold has been about $5,000, so Q2 revenue of $36 million, and the annual runrate of $144 million revenue.
2. Compared to the prior three Qs. 6,861 in Q4 2024, 5,230 in Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 was 3,930oz. So Y/Y the June 2025 Q will be at 7200 which will be 83% more gold at a price of $5,000oz compared to $3,554 or 40% higher gold too. Compared to Q1 2025 with 6,183oz and $4,520, sequentially it will be 16.4% gold oz growth and 10.6% higher gold price. Here is prior Q report https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/3456ca991f4ffb97b743bc21872284ae
3. In Aud dollars that is Q2 2025 $36 million vs Q1 2025 at $29.45 million and Q2 2024 being $14.7 million. So sequentially, that is 22.2% more revenue and Y/Y that is 145% revenue growth.
4. So the harder to predict Free Cash Flow? Cost Summary Unit Mar-25 Qtr Dec-24 Qtr Sep-24 Qtr Jun-24 Qtr Project All-in-Sustaining Cost1 A$/Oz 3,413 3,163 3,673 4,460
With the higher mining rate guessing $3200 AISC vs $5,000 oz selling price or $1800 margin and way over 50% FCF margin if have numbers right here. $1,800 X 7,200oz = $12,960,000 FCF for Q or annualized $51,840,000 Aud. Current market cap is $114 million Aud, so a 45.5% Free Cash Flow yield or 2.2 Price/FCF Ratio, which might be the best in the world for a gold miner, and yet it is in Western Australia, which is often voted the best mining jurisdiction in the world. And BTW that is ignoring their Timor-Leste huge land package with very high grade copper/gold VMS outdcrops.
At the Ossu concession, historical occurrences of chalcopyrite-rich boulders have returned significant grades, including up to 12% copper, 0.88% cobalt, and 2.08 grams per tonne (g/t) gold.At Baucau, a recent reconnaissance program has identified multiple polymetallic copper mineralization occurrences at the 'Quarry' and 'Vermasse' prospects, with assay results pending.Beacon is planning a comprehensive exploration program, including geophysical surveys and drilling, to further evaluate the potential of these concessions.The company has also entered into a non-binding term sheet with Murak Rai Timor, a state-owned mining company, to explore a joint venture opportunity. (AI- Generated)
All that for a 45.5% Free Cash Flow yield??? And sequentially 22.2% Q revenue growth , and Y/Y 145% Q revenue growth. Correct me if my #s are off. If they are not off, it is ridiculously undervalued, and doing a 5-bagger with a continued gold price rally would seem in order.
BCN Price at posting:
2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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