so who do you believe

Zinc Price May Recover on China Demand, Goldman Says (Update2)

By Xiao Yu and Madelene Pearson

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for zinc, used to rust-proof steel, may recover this half as demand growth in China strains global supply, said Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, the Australian affiliate of the world's most profitable investment bank.

``Prices may well recover from here to a substantial degree,'' in the first half, Malcolm Southwood, the firm's principal resources analyst, said at the Zinc Briefing 2007 in Sydney today. He expects the price to average higher in the half than his full-year forecast of $1.83 a pound ($4,034 a ton).

``We'd be looking at $4,000 a ton for zinc,'' said Kim Robinson, chairman of Perth-based Kagara Zinc Ltd., which sells its output to Korea Zinc Co., the world's biggest smelter of the metal. ``There is still a lack of supply of zinc metal into the market.''

Zinc prices more than doubled last year as global supplies failed to catch up with demand from China, which accounts for a third of global use. Prices on the London Metal Exchange slumped 15 percent last week as analysts including those at Barclays Capital cut 2007 price forecasts.

Zinc for delivery in three months rose $30, or 1 percent, to $3,130 a ton on the LME as at 4:44 p.m. Sydney time. The metal, last year's second-biggest gainer behind nickel, rose to a record $4,515 on the exchange on Nov. 9.

Market Deficit

Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to have a deficit of 30,000 tons-40,000 tons in 2007, Southwood said. Chinese demand will grow at about 11.5 percent this year, compared with 2006, adding at least 340,000 tons in demand, he said.

``Prices that we are seeing at the moment of $3,000 per ton are very good prices for anyone that's been in the zinc market for a long time,'' Len Jubber, chief executive officer of Perth- based Perilya Ltd. who's predicting a ``slight'' surplus this year, said in an interview.

The surplus ``won't materially alleviate that pressure on the market and we see it heading toward a deficit again in the next 2 to 3 years,'' he said.

Prices for zinc, may average 35 percent more this year, beating other industrial metals such as copper and nickel, because of supply constraints, RBC Capital Markets said last month.

To contact the reporters on this story: Xiao Yu in Sydney at [email protected] ; Madelene Pearson in Sydney at [email protected]

Last Updated: February 6, 2007 01:38 EST


A lot of conflicting reports out there.