at $23.44 (now), market would seem to belive that prob of $23...

at $23.44 (now), market would seem to belive that prob of $23 bid succeeding is ~85% (if you assume that the eventual winner otherwise pays ~$30).

personally I'm happy to but the stock now and face a potential loss of 44c. XTA not dummies, so if they an see value at this price, likely that someone else can. The fact that JBM have conducted an auction already is a slight negative ...