and others please correct me if i'm wrong, as i'm no geo,
but i thought the real targets were deeper?
Otherwise, a drilling schedule 2500 deep?
---------------------------
Take a look at any of the releases from the past week. It clearly states what the primary targets are. Or look at the gantt chart with the clearly labelled green dots.
There is 5 days of drilling of about 750m after the last primary target. There is a secondary target at TD but the extra depth is probably just as much about acquiring specific knowledge of the formations and makeup present to better guide them next time as it is another roll of the dice while they're down there for the primaries.
People get in and out of drills as the success probability changes. It's not that people don't like the company any more, it's just basic common sense and not wanting to lose money when they can get out in the 20's and buy back in for the next drill in the 10's when there is only maybe 5% chance of missing out on a gusher (missing out happens of course it's just playing the averages.).
The general probability assigned to a wildcat well is 10%.
Also oil migrates upwards.
Thats the skinny of the situation.
It's generally the best idea to lighten your holding on or before the spud so you've taken some profits on the run up to offset losses on the drill.
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