Paul you are missing the important ingredient in your " potential " equation .
Potential as the end equation has a factor within it called " risk " .
MAD are in a stable country , have drilled the area for over 40 years , have their reserves measured to International Standings , no debt , own their own rigs , increased their land holdings over known areas to them , increased reserves accordingly & now are concentrating on increasing production out of those increased reserves & 100 wells fully financed to drill over the next year .
Now if thats the added " risk factor " then I will take it every day .
You cannot call that the above is 2 years baked into the current price because if it was it would be " potentially " worth so so much more .
PGI on the other hand are in the Dominican Republic which though a democracy it still Is not what you would call a safe country .Prone to , unfortunately , natural disasters in the area , is using a method of extraction on previous unrecoverable tailings that is in its infancy & largely unproven ,has land & some results in places like Ecquador & Peru but years away from production in those areas .
See how the risk factor has to be built into the equation called " Potential " ?
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