The 5 - 15% active ingredient probably makes not much...

Yep.

Over 90% of the USA has health insurance, and the treatment will typically be free ( fully covered by insurers ), so it would cost you nothing.



That is also why it's extremely unlikely that BOT will take a 70% margin, because the Insurer will demand a rebate from BOT, that probably alone is 20 - 30%, then you have manufacturing cost, pharmacy cost, distribution cost, sales team cost, telehealth cost.... all drive the % that BOT recieves down to most likley under 40%. 70% is unheard of and would require the BOT to also be the manufacturer and probably the distributer aswell - which they are not.

The 5 - 15% active ingredient probably makes not much difference. In Japan we are talking $70 per bottle sales price, and that is covering everything ( manufacture, packaging, distribution, pharma costs ), so manufacture will be a small % of the 70...... probably under $10


Really the biggest unknown is the market sales.
You can try compare apples and apples ( Ecclock and Sofdra ) where the product is almost identical but the market is different, or you can go the other way and try compare different products but in the same market ( Sofdra and Qbrexza in the USA ) - if you can get ahold of Qbextra sales data.

The problems with different products on the same market is ->
Is Qbrexza using Telehealth?
Does Qbrexza mail out auto prescription refills every month?
Is Qbrexza using AI to target influencers on all platforms, to get the product in their hands so they can talk about it?
Is Qbrexza similar in efficacy and safety?

All these provide massive differences that can completely de-rail any assumption about how many units ultimately might be sold. And really, none of us have any idea about how successful BOT will be with their marketing strategy, apart from knowing the team is well experienced, and their strategy appears to be up with modern times - rather than wasting money on paper and media adverts that are ignored and miss the primary target.

Who knows.... 12 auto refill scripts sent out, maybe they take 6 to the doctor for their free medication covered by insurance.... That alone means double the sales above..... SP north of $10.