BOT 2.63% 37.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

Sofdra US Sales Curve, page-29

  1. 4,178 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5443
    700 USD sales price ~ 1000 AUD per script
    20% profit assumption ( after tax, expenses, royalty payment, reimbursement )
    200 AUD profit per script.

    Kaken first month 2 months sales ~ 34,867 ~ 209,202 annual script rate in first 2 months of sales.
    209,202 X 200 AUD profit = 41.8 Million Profit ( year 1 )

    US average is 2 x the script renewals as Japan
    41.8 x 2 = 83.7 million ( script renewal adjustment )

    US has 3x the population with disease, and same occurance rates
    83.7 x 3 = 251 Million AUD profit.

    PE 15:1 Market cap ~ 3.76 Billion
    Current Market cap 714 Million ( 39.5 cents )
    SP Adjusted price $2.08 AUD

    No calculation for greater penetration then Kaken
    No calculation for greater script renewals than US average of 2.

    Script renewal adjustment ( 4 scripts instead of 2 )
    SP Adjusted price $4.16 AUD

    Plenty of room for BOT to knock this into outer space.



 
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