The calculations I think you are doing are on an installed...

The calculations I think you are doing are on an installed capital cost capacity basis. Converting installed capacity to price per kWh requires analysis over economic life and that requires an assessment of demand, maintenance and replacement costs etc etc. It is what ends up giving you lower kWh prices than calculating prices on a installed capacity basis (because those prices are quite high at US$253 per kWh - NSW grid prices are around 33 cents per kWh and that is derived from an asset life perspective, not installed capacity basis). I went through that for vanadium batteries in this post and these two posts, trying to get to wholesale costs of electricity:
Post #: 37244924
Post #: 38125358

It is why I see vanadium batteries very competitive, actually more than competitive in the large scale energy stationary market. Over economic life, in the embedded posts above I think I worked out a kWh price of less than 10c for vanadium (but I am sure that calc was wrong, actually think it is wrong simply on the assumptions I needed to make in that calc).

My gut feel as I explained in my post was that AVL is going for gas option because of security of supply and reliability issues given where it is.

In terms of energy storage in vanadium batteries you still need a predominant source of energy generation and I think by excluding solar and wind AVL are saying they don't think that will provide reliability and security in a 24/7 mine project (so not around price by the looks of it). Most vanadium batteries are currently used for grid energy storage i.e., attached to power plants or electrical grids, so where AVL is located unless can sell energy to other parties the role of batteries is reduced there IMO (albeit I wouldn't mind AVL's gas plant been connected to a battery to show the concept of battery storage at a larger scale and using that power in its own plant, but that would require an assessment as to the overall cost of a gas option compared to a gas/battery option on a whole of like kWh price for each unit of electricity.).

In terms of an article posted a while back by others where the battery owners down in Bunbury said they haven't paid anything for electricity for many years with their VSUN battery, my recollection was that came about because they were feeding excess energy stored in the battery back into the interconnected system and therefore were essentially getting everything for free per se from their own use (on a life cycle perspective). This option is not available to AVL at minesite (unless can sell excess electricity to TMT) because they are nowhere near the interconnected grid to feed excess energy into.

Like you I am no expert in electricity systems and storage systems as they pertain especially to renewable energy options and price, so everything I have posted in this thread should be treated with caution. If others have experience in this area would be interested in their views as to energy options for AVL in light of recent activity in renewable energy technologies.

My main interest in having shares in AVL is them getting their act together to target the steel market where 90% of current demand is. Vanadium batteries come after that IMO, and probably not until the 2020s IMO when their economics improves and they become the battery of choice in the large scale stationary energy storage market, but in the now it is steel.

All IMO IMO