Westcott, I hope it's clear that I have a lot of time for you,...

Westcott,

I hope it's clear that I have a lot of time for you, what you have managed to absorb and learn (external from the industry), and the time you have spent sharing your knowledge with others. Which is irrespective of my or your views on this stock, or the occasional style spats on this thread

This is even more so given my recent forays into another thread where some of the recognised experts completely botch basic industry info, particularly on that company's competitors, even though much it is directly available on the competing companies websites.

To your questions:

I never subscribed to SDLs opex forecast, it was an aggressive early stage study estimate, put forward when SDL clearly was positioning itself for a takeover and looking to get market backing. The capex also looked light for a difficult greenfields build, for the same reasons.

The possibility that the new development could significantly surpass the Pilbara for cost efficiencies didn't stack up. This is an industry where 75% of the capacity argues it is the bottom 25% of the cost quartile.

It's hard to see a new province opening up, especially in Africa, when new low cost capacity it still being added by the likes of Vale, FMG which was the marginal producer has moved down the curve, and Roy Hill is ramping up. BHP and RIO can and will flick the expansion switch again if iron ore stays above $60/t (I think unlikley) given margins are so high now with savage cost base reductions.

Simandou is the logical next African supply, but hard to see that in the next decade or two, hence Rio is out.

The debate on SDL cost/capex is academic at this point.