Here are the OLI Qtrly 4C results for the trading operation as...

Here are the OLI Qtrly 4C results for the trading operation as reported by OLI over the past two years.
For Q4 2019 I have indicated where I have made an estimate.

So based on the OLI forecast detailed in the Q3 2019 4C, plus my estimates, OLI will need to generate $8.8 million in receipts from customers in the current quarter to avoid using cash. So is that likely? Looking at the cost structure, a reduction of $1.3 million in costs from those experienced in the 3rd Qtr is forecast by the Directors in the 4C released 30 April 2019. The greatest hit is to advertising at nearly 50% and next staff with a 14% reduction...that is one in seven.

Given that OLI have closed stores, it is very interesting that the calculated revenue for Q4 2019 is the 4th highest in the listed trading history. That would appear to be a tall ask given that in the same equivalent quarter last year they only managed $8.5 million. In that quarter product costs were $5.3 million compared with the company forecast of $3.9 million for product costs in the current quarter.

The product margin in my estimated breakeven position for Q4 is 44% whereas the average for the previous three quarters is around 49%. If they do the historical average then the revenue will be just $8.0 million resulting in cash out of $800k leaving a cash balance of just $500k to deal with "other costs" and any required debt repayment.

And we only have seven weeks left of the quarter...

(000's)