Some basic oil in place figures

PLEEEASE Tell me I'm wrong here.

I thought some figures being touted around the place were pure fantasy BUT on the assumption that the HRZ and Kuparuk zones are consistent across the acreage.


HRZ Barrels of Oil In Place.

272,000 Acres X 4046.86 M2/ acre  =  1,100,000,000 M2 Area for Total JV acreage (approx)

Area X Height = Volume

1,100,000,000 M2 X  54.9 M height HRZ net column= 60,400,000,000 M3

1000 Litres to 1 M3, therefore

60,400,000,000 M3 X 1000 L = 60,400,000,000,000 Litres in JV acreage

Porosity = 0.11 or 11% as per annmnt

http://clients2.weblink.com.au/news/pdf_1\01717816.pdf

Litres in Acreage X Rock Porosity = Acreage Porosity Volume IN LITRES

60,400,000,000,000 X 0.11 = 6,644,000,000,000 Ltrs

1 US barrel oil  = 159 Ltrs

Therefore potential bbls oil in JC acreage = 6,644,000,000,000L/159L per bbl

= 41,800,000,000

DONT FORGET this is making the HUGE assumption that these numbers apply across the acreage which will NOT be the case.

Assuming the SWEETSPOT covers 20 % of the acreage this gives 8.36 Billion bbls



KUPARUK OIL IN PLACE

Same calcs as applied to kuparuk but with 15% porosity.

Acreage Ltrs Volume in JV acreage X  15% porosity = 2,920,000,000,000 L X 0.15

=  438,000,000,000 (L) porosity over JV acreage

Porosity Volume (L) / 159 (L/bbl) = 2,755,000,000 bbls

Making a somewhat more general assumption that the oil in place would be more consistent across JV acreage in the Kuparuk the assumption made is 50% OIP.

Therefore we have 1.378 Billion bbls OIP



Now I DONT FOR A MINUTE think that these are what the numbers will be as the IRR WILL GO CONSERVATIVE.

More than likely showing my total lack of understanding for petrophysics by doing these calcs too.



So if the assumptions are then reduced 50% again the we get

HRZ / 4.2 Billion approx.

Kuparuk / 0.69 Billion approx.

So making some conservative assumptions all along the way I get ballpark 4.9 Billion bbls oip.

Just some ROUGHY numbers  to pass the time essentially and see if I'm in the ball park or, WAY WAY out which I suspect I will be !!!

These numbers dont take into account discount for recoverable of course so if one mucks with the MASSIVE ERRORS in the assumptions one will get SOMEWHERE AROUND what might be a fair recoverable one wwould think.

Don't know why I bothered really.

Oh well had to have a go !!!

d.