some basics - sdl vs. fmg, page-44

Hi sammsam,

i gather the honesty and genuineness of your query, and I would like to share with you my opinion, backed up with my previous exposures and experiences.

I personally believe the share price is going to be appreciating especially after the DFS report has been published. HOWEVER, it is in a 'sensitive stage now" where SDL needs a "serious partner(s)" to put up the serious money to carry this Project through Post-DFS. Whoever that "serious partner*(s)" going to be - it would be to their interest to drive the relative value of the share price "down" before they commit and sign the deal. The reason is obvious, that they want to "buy in" as cheap as they can, which is fair enough.

Now, if you only look at the Share Price (SP) as a "number" would be misleading - for there is a tendency they will consolidate the number of Ordinary Shares before the "serious partner(s) get in to allow for a bit of room for them - (because as of now at Pre-DFS, there's 2.71-Billion SDL Ordinary Shares - as compared with Producing FMG "with a lot of debts and Major Partners" have only 3.11-Billion Ordinary Shares issued).

The next move of SDL on the commercial and business level is obvious. Plus, the banks and major institutions and funds that would like to invest in would like a higher SP "Number" as a rule of thumb.

So to summarise my answer to your question - in my opinion, the "Value of my SDL Shareholdings" will go down first, BUT, it's Share Price will go up (mainly due to consolidation).

Now, whatever the DFS report would conclude and recommend as the basis of the way forward for SDL, that would dictate if the "Value of my SDL Shareholdings" will go UP or Down in the short and medium term.

While waiting for DFS Report, there's a lot of people in the market that would become impatient and that would hurt the SP in the short term. However, it would help with the negotiations for the prospective "serious partner(s)."

Moreover, If you look back on Market history file, the period of February'ish (roughly) was usually a window of minor-correction - and this won't help SDL SP either in the very short term.

If you hold for the medium term, I strongly believe you are in for "double-your-money value" if you got in at 40 cents ( and I can see those big eyes rolling for those who got in at 10 cents and held their peace since ). If you hold for the long..... long haul - in my opinion, the risk-profile is a bit too uncertain yet.

Hope my opinions would help a bit. I have to hit the bed it's past midnight here, and it's early morning down there already.

Cheers.