some calculations on lng value to bpt

To answer my own question earlier today on another BPT thread, some rough calculations on value of LNG to potential BPT acquirer:

At oil parity with $90 oil, LNG price is $14.50GJ. 

Cost of liquefaction ( including CAPEX)  is say $3GJ. 

Shipping $1.50GJ. 

Regas $0.5 GJ. 

Gives a net back price at load out arm of $9.50GJ. 

Cost of natural gas (dry Shale Gas) to develop and ship is $5GJ. 

Leaves $4.50 GJ as a break even price. 

Assume Shale Gas will not go into train for 7 years and 10% discount rate.  

Rule of 72 says we halve giving a discounted price of $2.25GJ.  This would be for 1P or P90 Reserves.  (Note this aligns with prices paid for CSG for 1P Reserves. These prices are now looking to be at the upper end). 

There would have to be some discount for PRRT, ROI, profit, tax etc. Say halve again to give $1GJ. 


1 Mcf of gas is 1.08GJ

So 1 Tcf is circa 1BnGJ. 

Equals a shed load assuming (boldly) my calculations are correct and a fantastic LNG price.   I will not even try to speculate on what 1P Reserves might be!  

DYOR, for discussion only and very dodgy!