some calculations

I always like those graphs with the flat line and then the nice trend upwards with the higher highs and lower lows. For SSN this is what I can put together (any thoughts welcone):

Based on the previous few quarters, Oil and Gas production (SSN Share ONLY, not total production):
Non Bakken Wells------BOPD--------MCFGD----------BOEPD
Harstad---------------015---------000------------015
State Oil & Gas-------016---------026------------019
Sabretooth------------006---------550------------098
Lookout Wash Field----000---------710------------118
Johan Field-----------000---------462------------077
Total Non Bakken------037---------1748-----------327
Avg Oct Price---------$80---------$3.80

Potential October 10 Income (31 days) approx $300,000. Remains fairly unchanged from quarter to quarter.

Bakken Wells for October 10 as per ND website - assuming this is correct and no reason to doubt as Sept 10 quarter was accurate:
Bakken Wells----------BOPD--------MCFGD----------BOEPD
Leonard---------------006---------000------------006
Gene------------------057---------100------------074
Gary------------------236---------378------------299
Total Bakken Oct------299---------478------------379
Avg Oct Price---------$80---------$3.80

Potential October Income (31 days) for Bakken Wells approx: $800,000. Total approx. Oct 10 Income - $1.1m, say $1m.

Of course need to allow for decline for Bakken Wells in Nov and Dec 10 which could be significant for Gary so need to take this into account.

Estimated quarterly expenditure as per last quarterly report - $0.404 production costs, $1.188m Admin Costs + $4.2m for Diamondback and 3D - Rodney & Earl already paid for in Sept 10 and Diamondback not drilled so would expect around $2m for 3D only. Allow $0.3m for loan interest plus $0.65m in principal reduction would give total cash outflow of approx - $4.542m. Less $0.42m for interest received so say $4.5m. May also get an extra $0.8m from sale of Niobrara land in Nov 10 "if SSN could cure some title defects" as per Sept 10 quarterly report but have not included in calculations.

If we average 300BOPD from Gary for the next 2 months (would give a total of 45,000BOPD for 3 months as opposed to 40,000BOPD for Gene) and given the increase in oil and gas prices for November 10 - $2.5m in turnover would be a realistic target.

Thus we would have burned about $2m in cash. The net cash position at 30/09/10 was $76m less $11m(loan) less $2m (Est. net Dec 10 cashburn) add back $0.65m in loan principal payment = $63.65m approx in NET cash on hand, just say $63m.

Then in first 6 months of 2011 we can look forward to:
Potential share price increase from:
- Frac crew contract
- Rodney (27%) & Earl (32%) wells waiting for Frac - if can organise back to back and flow 20k in first month each as per Gene looking in excess of $1m in revenue for the month only to SSN - no costs to book against income as paid for in Sept 10 quarter
- Harstad #2 Well in Bakken
- Bakken spacing
- 3D results
- Sale of gas assets

The Dark Horse:
- Diamondback Well - currently in Sabretooth Gulf Coast area. The total production for Sabretooth on avg per quarter is approx 54BOPD and 4,400MCfgd or about 787BOPED.

Potential big price movement could come from:
- JV announcement and drilling in Niobrara
- CHK potential royalty payment and other Niobrara results
- Takeover?
- Suprise acquistions with that $63m sitting in the bank

Against a backdrop of rising oil prices.

Currently undiluted shares of $1.64B x 6c = $98.4m mkt cap(diluted approx $120m but allow extra $5m cash) with net cash after est. Dec 10 quarter net cash outflow = $63m.

Could it be we are at the flat period before we see one of those nice trends emerge? Been holding and slowly accumulating a few more in the last few days to find out in 2011.

Just thought would share some of my calculations during this quiet time. My thoughts only, forward projections are always difficult, especially for O&G plays but gotta base your investment decisions on something, so please DYOR before ever investing in a share.

Source of information from Quarterly reports (March 10 to Sep 10), Estimated expenses from Sep 10 quarterly report and https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/bakkenwells.asp for Bakken Well production for October 2010.