ARU 13.2% 16.5¢ arafura rare earths ltd

some clarification

  1. 1,258 Posts.
    from what I heard a major portion of the gap between the provided data in the PFS and the given NPV of 1.1bln$ is related to the escalation model of revenues.

    The PFS has the escalation rate at an annual 4% for all products but in fact there is a differentiation as follows:

    REO: 7%
    other: 3%

    The weighted average is (260/410*7%)+(150/410*3%)=5,536%

    The difference between 4% and 5.536% works out to a difference in revenues of almost 400m$ in year 20 just to give you an impression on the impact.

    After I typed those data into my EXCEL sheet the NPV (pre-tax) incl. just the hard-capex of 450m$ of 1,280m$.

    Had no further information on how we get through to the post-tax NPV but I suppose that some tax credits and incentives will apply that have a bigger effect on the NPV because they apply in the first 8 years or so of the mine-life.

    Just FYI I further applied a 40m$ cut in opex (over-the-fence chemicals production) and ended up with a 1,711m$ NPV (pre-tax).

    Just wanna show you guys the there is a pretty good leverage in this calculation.

    Apart from that management has to learn its lesson that transparency is the key for investor's confidence and I can only hope that management will work harder to provide us with the necessary information. I guess when I asked Alistair about that he has a bunch of strategic reasons to provide as little information as possible but at a certain point there is a massive conflict of interest between shareholders that like o be informed timely and properly and other stakeholders interests.

    I hope this information better helps you to make your buy or sell decision in a prposed hectic trading session tomorrow/today.

    Lenni
 
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