from what I heard a major portion of the gap between the provided data in the PFS and the given NPV of 1.1bln$ is related to the escalation model of revenues.
The PFS has the escalation rate at an annual 4% for all products but in fact there is a differentiation as follows:
REO: 7%
other: 3%
The weighted average is (260/410*7%)+(150/410*3%)=5,536%
The difference between 4% and 5.536% works out to a difference in revenues of almost 400m$ in year 20 just to give you an impression on the impact.
After I typed those data into my EXCEL sheet the NPV (pre-tax) incl. just the hard-capex of 450m$ of 1,280m$.
Had no further information on how we get through to the post-tax NPV but I suppose that some tax credits and incentives will apply that have a bigger effect on the NPV because they apply in the first 8 years or so of the mine-life.
Just FYI I further applied a 40m$ cut in opex (over-the-fence chemicals production) and ended up with a 1,711m$ NPV (pre-tax).
Just wanna show you guys the there is a pretty good leverage in this calculation.
Apart from that management has to learn its lesson that transparency is the key for investor's confidence and I can only hope that management will work harder to provide us with the necessary information. I guess when I asked Alistair about that he has a bunch of strategic reasons to provide as little information as possible but at a certain point there is a massive conflict of interest between shareholders that like o be informed timely and properly and other stakeholders interests.
I hope this information better helps you to make your buy or sell decision in a prposed hectic trading session tomorrow/today.
Lenni
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ARU
- some clarification
ARU
arafura rare earths ltd
Add to My Watchlist
8.11%
!
20.0¢

some clarification
Featured News
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
|
|||||
Last
20.0¢ |
Change
0.015(8.11%) |
Mkt cap ! $492.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
18.5¢ | 20.0¢ | 18.0¢ | $1.365M | 7.077M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 320989 | 19.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
20.0¢ | 1311089 | 38 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 320989 | 0.190 |
14 | 618178 | 0.185 |
22 | 1271969 | 0.180 |
30 | 1363613 | 0.175 |
40 | 2151287 | 0.170 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.200 | 1265300 | 36 |
0.205 | 630488 | 14 |
0.210 | 1029038 | 26 |
0.215 | 763004 | 14 |
0.220 | 2591655 | 21 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 04/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ARU (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
NUZ
NEURIZON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED
Dr Michael Thurn, CEO & MD
Dr Michael Thurn
CEO & MD
SPONSORED BY The Market Online