from what I heard a major portion of the gap between the provided data in the PFS and the given NPV of 1.1bln$ is related to the escalation model of revenues.
The PFS has the escalation rate at an annual 4% for all products but in fact there is a differentiation as follows:
REO: 7%
other: 3%
The weighted average is (260/410*7%)+(150/410*3%)=5,536%
The difference between 4% and 5.536% works out to a difference in revenues of almost 400m$ in year 20 just to give you an impression on the impact.
After I typed those data into my EXCEL sheet the NPV (pre-tax) incl. just the hard-capex of 450m$ of 1,280m$.
Had no further information on how we get through to the post-tax NPV but I suppose that some tax credits and incentives will apply that have a bigger effect on the NPV because they apply in the first 8 years or so of the mine-life.
Just FYI I further applied a 40m$ cut in opex (over-the-fence chemicals production) and ended up with a 1,711m$ NPV (pre-tax).
Just wanna show you guys the there is a pretty good leverage in this calculation.
Apart from that management has to learn its lesson that transparency is the key for investor's confidence and I can only hope that management will work harder to provide us with the necessary information. I guess when I asked Alistair about that he has a bunch of strategic reasons to provide as little information as possible but at a certain point there is a massive conflict of interest between shareholders that like o be informed timely and properly and other stakeholders interests.
I hope this information better helps you to make your buy or sell decision in a prposed hectic trading session tomorrow/today.
Lenni
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16.5¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $381.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.5¢ | 17.5¢ | 16.5¢ | $2.808M | 16.50M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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17.0¢ | 1169481 | 25 |
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90 | 4206052 | 0.160 |
48 | 5192583 | 0.155 |
55 | 3963094 | 0.150 |
17 | 1143635 | 0.145 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.170 | 1159481 | 24 |
0.175 | 1096003 | 17 |
0.180 | 1540305 | 21 |
0.185 | 965313 | 12 |
0.190 | 371480 | 11 |
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