Statistical analysis always involves data selection. For instance you have chosen 1970 as a starting point for the long term trend to 98 rather than 1968 for 30 years.
The pause is the period from 1998 to 2015 before the 2016 el-nino event. If you are going to examine the trend during that period then best look at that period I suggest.
The long term trend is warming. No statistical analysis or proof is required.
The pause ended with the 2016 el-nino event. Interestingly you used the long term slope (woodfortrees is great btw) to show that the slope slightly decreased on a 45 year trend vs the 28 year trend ending in 98 showing at least the rate slowed down during the pause. Wood for trees might be good to show the slope during the pause or 30 yrs ending 2015 vs 30 years ending 1998. How do they visually compare?
It may or may not be statistically significantly different to the long term trend - that is an interesting mathematical question. I have no emotional interest in the answer but great curiosity.
I will share the analysis- I will squeeze it in between work and christmas social events because it is a really good suggestion.
