some company value calculations

Been doing some calculations on potential company value

Current known facts is that the intended production is 1.5mlbspa of Uranium (million pounds per Annum of) year with capacity for 3mlbspa Uranium. (U3O8)
There is currently 5.9mlbs JORC proven resources for the Ross permit area (one of many permit areas but the one targeted for production 4q12) with a target of 41mlbs.
Net Assets is 3.8 cents per share

Going on an absolute worst case scenario assumption we will use 5.9mlbs production over 13 years (intended mine life for 41mlbs) at operating costs of $30/lb and $50/lb sale price fully diluted (3.052 billion shares) with the dollar at parity and 30% tax, 6% royalties:
5.9mlbs * $20/lb (revenue after costs) = $118,000,000 / 13 years = $9,076,923 minus tax (30%) = $6,353,846 minus royalties (6%) = $5,972,615 profit p.a. divided by 3.052 billion shares equals an EPS of .0019 dollars per share at a P/E 10 = 0.019 (or 1.9 cents)

That sounds hideous. - however at such low resources they would go a 6 year mine life totaling approximately .42 cents per share at a P/E10 equaling 4.2 cents per share.

Going on 19.5mlbs jorc confirmed resources (46% recoverable of total measured, indicated and inferred potential) which would be 1.5mlbspa over a 13 year mine life:
19.5mlbs * $20/lb (revenue after costs) = $390,000,000 / 13 years = $30,000,000 minus tax (30%) = $21,000,000 minus royalties (6%) = $19,740,000 profit p.a. divided by 3.052 billion shares equals an EPS of .0064 dollars per share at a PE ratio of 10 equaling 0.064 (or 6.4 cents per share)

so that's the absolute bearish account which doesn't factor in vanadium credits etc.

So I will now run with that bearish account but on a $60/lb contract price (still bearish) with a $30/lb operating cost and remaining at parity with the dollar

Going on 19.5mlbs jorc confirmed resources which would be 1.5mlbspa over a 13 year mine life:
19.5mlbs * $30/lb (revenue after costs) = $585,000,000 / 13 years = $45,000,000 minus tax (30%) = $31,500,000 minus royalties (6%) = $29,610,000 profit p.a. divided by 3.052 billion shares equals an EPS of .0097 dollars per share at a PE ratio of 10 equaling 0.097 (or 9.7 cents per share)

If we we're to factor in a net asset value of 3.8 cents per share but with an approximate 50% asset depreciation (so 1.9 cents per share) then at 5.9mlbs over 13 years the SP could be 3.8cps; at 5.9mlbs total over 6 years the SP could be 6.1cps; at 19.5mlbs over 13 years ($50/lb contract) the sp could be 8.3cps; and at 19.5mlbs over 13 years ($70/lb contract) it could be 11.6cps

What are the thoughts on the calculations? chances are I've stuffed something up somewhere.

BEFORE YOU POST: yes this is bearish, yes i have used a low P/E ratio of 10 when it could be 15 (or for you American style optimistic investors, more), yes i have used a low contract price, yes i am only accounting for ross permit area, yes i have not taken into consideration vanadium credits, yes i have not taken into consideration potential full production capacity, yes it is full dilution, yes it uses a AUD/USD exchange rate of 1:1 - aka. yes it is a bearish or a worst case production scenario outlook.

in my opinion and based on those calculations risk v reward looks promising and worst case production scenarios don't seem too bad. I guess sentiment is buy.

What are your thoughts?