Jamiebook,
Some points I noted from your calculations:
1) You have assumed and used $30/lb as OPERATING COST in your calculation. IMO, it would be more accurate to also include Administration and Corporate costs as well. If you refer to Hartleys report, you will find that when PEN is forecast to be producing around 1.5mlbs in 2014, the TOTAL COST works out to be around $37/lb.
Using $37/lb and following your calculations, at 19.5mlbs:
At a uranium price of $55/lb (current mid-term price) -
$18/lb x 19.5mlbs = $351m / 13 years = $27m minus 30% tax = $18.9m minus 6% royalties = $17.766 profit p.a. Divided by 3.052 billion shares at a PE of 10 = 5.8211 cents per share.
At a uranium price of $63/lb (current long term price) -
$26/lb x 19.5mlbs = $507m / 13 years = $39m minus 30% tax = $27.3m minus 6% royalties = $25.662 profit p.a. Divided by 3.052 billion shares at a PE of 10 = 8.41 cents per share.
2) You stated that your calculations do not incorporate vanadium credits. However, an operating cost of $30/lb would imply that it does take into consideration Vanadium credits. If you refer to RCR's report, you will see that they have assumed OPERATING COST of $30/lb in their valuation which includes vanadium credits.
Some points to note:
- PEN will not be producing 1.5mlbs/ annum immediately when production commences at the end of 2012. Hartleys have forecasted production of 40,000lbs in 2012 (as production only commences towards the end of 2012), 730,000lbs in 2013 and 1,450,000lbs in 2014 so PEN holders should bear this in mind. As your calculations assume a 1.5mlbs/ annum production rate and PEN is only expected to produce at that rate in 2014, then PEN holders may have to wait till at least 2013/ 2014, before the valuations in your calculations may be achieved.
- When PEN starts producing at a rate of 1.5mlbs/ annum in 2014, the number of shares will most likely be higher as a result of the issue of more shares and options to NuCore which will effect the earnings per share calculation and the resulting price per share in your calculations.
Just my thoughts. Lots of variables and estimates so no one knows what the final numbers will be. DFS will provide a lot more clarification. Good effort and thumbs up from me.
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