Hey DD,
Haven't posted much on this thread because you can see that it has the Star Wars bar full of the baddest-a$$ rampers in the biz already
I got in on day one and was waiting for a day like yesterday to stabilise the prices before posting much in case any new entrants followed me in and got done in the volatility and euphoria that demands 20%+ increases per day.
It's a good resource and potentially very very valuable but speculation is high and the stock may swing pretty violently for some time.
Be mindful that this is still in it's early stages and the path to production is still not clear.
That's why the Star Wars bar is so full. These are all guys who know a good thing when they see it and don't mind the risk to get in and get a good position for a year that will see cobalt do very well.
I believe much of Elon's push to remove cobalt last year was not only from a cost perspective but having an ethical supply chain that didn't involve 9 years olds getting crushed down pits.
Oh and the odd tendency to hyper-inflation that they have in the DRC (500%+ in one year a while back).
There was some news around a non-cobalt formula last year. One of Elon's scientists was making it a mission to remove it from the formula. This was the main reason for my reluctance to invest in this resource.
BYD were also favouring a lithium iron phosphate formulation last year.
Apart from the non-DRC source theme being one of the main factors that will drive cobalt this year, the main one is that this mission to replace cobalt hasn't worked.
I'm sure Elon would love to make his batteries cheaper - but the truth is that he doesn't have much to say about it. He sources his materials from the big battery companies and relies on them for to make the most powerful and long-lasting formulations. These still vastly favour cobalt.
I believe this comes back to the stability and density advantages of cobalt as cathode material. Panasonic's new high density batteries are cobalt based and this increasing performance is what keeps cobalt in the mix. Samsung too continues to focus on nickel cobalt.
At the end of the day - as Elon said - it would be more appropriate to call lithium-ion batteries - nickel cobalt batteries, as the amount of lithium is much much smaller.
Importantly, China has also introduced new subsidies and range requirements that have seen BYD, and the entire Chinese battery segment, move back to cobalt cathodes.
The only danger now is that cobalt prices go so stratospheric and non DRC production takes too long to come online, that the tech sector will be virtually forced to focus on other formula.
Some light reading...
Here is a reasonable overview.
https://do not advertise external s...-prices-rise-as-consumer-interest-mounts.html
And here is the one that goes into some details about the new Chinese policies regarding cobalt
http://www.crugroup.com/about-cru/cruinsight/Cobalts_future_in_Chinese_EVs
I'm no expert on cobalt - so do your due diligence.
I have only just started studying production methods and a lot will depend on ARL's "low capex" solution and the further details they put out in their PFS/DFS.
Despite this the collection of resources here is astounding and basically hedges this current market cap by being basically undervalued even without it's cobalt. The gold alone would be worth this value.
I did some reading around on the gold deposit.
This is just a bit of trivial info - but I found it interesting.
Seems that Lewis Ponds is likely to be the very first discovered gold deposit in Australia.
It was discovered by a guy in the nearby creeks who had learnt to pan for gold in California.
The discovery kicked off the Australian gold rushes from the 1850s onwards.
Interesting that we are here about 170 years later to finish the job.
Good luck
(20min delay)