some cursory analysis for the brave

Boart Long Year BLY appears to be setting up for a trend reversal in coming days.

Positve Indicators(9/6/2012) are;

1. Base formation with apparent mild divergence between momentum indicator and price action
2. Positive cross in momentum indicator
3. Early formation of ascending triangle.

Looking for;
Convincing break above 2.26 followed by a pause at $3.35 on volume for confirmation.
Reversal in short term (30 day) moving average.

Down side risk, short term volatility due to Greek exit concerns.
BLY is high Beta and will follow the market down
BLY earnings dependent on new exploration which in turn is funded by IPO activity in the mining space. The outlook here is positively grim in the short to medium term.

Underpinning;
BLY Management has affirmed 2012 guidance in May with bullish asertions about demand.
The first half FY12 figures are near enough in the bag to assure that the result is unlikely to be undermined. Management is unlikely to reguide the second half so soon after backing their FY12 forecast. (Not to say that they never will, just not yet)
At current forecasts, FY12 forecast places BLY at an EPS of 46 uggesting a P/E (@$3.00) PE of 6.5 relative to the market PE of 12 and industry PE of10.
Gearing is less than 30% and FY12 cash flows will further reduce net gearing by about 1/3 based on managements CAPEX undertaking, if they trim CAPEX this could be further improved.
$2.80 is a strong technical support level followed by $2.60 which was the level at which the company recapitalised in 2008.

Summary
Setting up for a nice run if Greece and the Euro survive the weekend.
If the Greeks commit economic suicide on Saturday, short everything.