Hate to say but it's absolutely obsurd to be comparing...

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23/08/22

10:35

Post #: 63265582
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Originally posted by saintex: ↑

Camplify earning potential

1/ Revenues
Camplify has still tiny revenues now.
During the last quarter, it had 5.6 m of revenues for 17 m of GTV.
Interesting to compare with Airbnb which had 2.1 bn USD revenues for 17 bn USD of GBV.
So, Camplify revenues just represents 0.2 % of Airbnb revenues for now (and 0.07 % of its GTV).

I think there will remain a large difference between the 2 groups for sometime, as Airbnb is in many more countries (vs 4 now for Camplify) and the potential market for dwelling hiring will probably remains much bigger than for RV renting.
Anyway, given the potential global market for RV and the expected expansion of Camplify in new countries, I expect the gap between Camplify and Airbnb revenues to be reduced.
Probably not aggressive to expect Camplify to reach 1 % of Airbnb revenues in the medium term, instead of 0.2 % now.
So, it corresponds to a target annual revenue of 120 m for Camplify.

2/ Margin
For now, Camplify has still a negative margin.
But we know that it is mainly due to the fact that it is still in an investment phase and is spending large marketing amount to gain new customers (mainly to get more RV on the platform).
Interesting to see that other companies with a similar business model are already profitable : Airbnb, but also Yescapa (with a similar size than Camplify).
At scale, we can probably expect Camplify to reach a similar margin than Airbnb.
Looking at the last quarter, it corresponds to an EBITDA margin of 22 % (after including the effect of stock based compensation in the adjusted EBITDA).

3/ Target EBITDA
Taking together the 2 elements above, it means that Camplify has a potential to reach an EBITDA of around 26 m*.

The next question is how long it will take for Camplify to reach such a level of earnings.
If the company continues to grow at 100 % per year, it could reach this level in two and a half years.
It the growth slows to 50 % per year, it would take 4 years to reach such level.

The main point is probably that P2P RV hiring market is in a high growth phase in Oceania, Europe and the US. And it is still not yet structured. So there is a strong incentive to go fast on this market to get a leadership position, both organically and via acquisitions.

To be fair, I have to recognize that I have a rather good visibility on a strong sales growth scenario.
The main question is more about margin : still very difficult to guess at such an early stage.
In fact, I don't think that it is that important to be able to have a good estimate for the EBITDA at this stage.
The key element is that we know that this business model is able to reach a high level of EBITDA/Free cash flow margin at scale.

* such a level of EBITDA would corresponds to a free cash flow (corrected for stock based compensation) of around 31 m.

Expand

Hate to say but it's absolutely obsurd to be comparing Camplify revenues with AirBNB. Yes they are similar business model. But they are totally different markets, size, age, etc.
Camplify will never be anywhere near AirBNB for revenue.
Camplify is still essentially a start up and quite new company.
It's like me comparing revenues of my mums homemade cookies at a market to Arnotts.

CHL Price at posting: $2.17 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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