some game is on today, page-45

Good analysis Jak,

Volatility in any stock we hold brings out the most responses..mostly good and bad..not many indifferent.Each shareholder..DT,ST,LT needs to analyse what they want out of the stock and act accordingly..Objective analysis is the best course to save a lot of pain. The Long term stalwarts would say "NO pain NO gain!"..I am not into pain personally....Pain killers are usually addictive and often fatal!

My view is this:

1: In Hindsight, the VWAP was obviously held @ 55c for 2 weeks prior the Insto cap raising announcement to show a 20% discount on the day of raising.

MEO obviously knew that there was a high degree of probability on the delay in Farminee sign off...they needed to cover their backsides very quickly in case there was another delay..There was!

So they pulled out the stop gap measure ..pre planned contingency of course...the sudden Insto and sophisticated Investor placement...sold out in 2 hours with a backlog of
Sophies wanting more.

2. We are now in the midst of the Placement holders cashing in their shares for a quick buck ~ 60M @ 45c. That is why the current VWAP is ~ 50c...after all 5% profit on a large number is a large number especially in one week...
The average punter hasn't got a snowballs chance in hell...individually..collectively maybe ..as OA suggested.

3. MEO SP has been (IMO) manipulated for 2 months now in various formats..if you were a very short term trader you could have made a killing...weekly!

4. THE BIG TEST:

The November 30 Directors excercising of options @ 50c needs to be finalised , this will in my opinion, the defining moment of MEO. If the Directors do not convert the options then this would be seen as a signal of uncertainty..not a good look IMO...Jurgen alluded to the fact that he had to see his bank manager and get his wife's approval to effect this.

I am sure the Bank manager would not give him the time of the day unless the VWAP is at 50c ,unless he does a margin buy on a low LVR of say 30% on some great personal assets..a big personal risk.

If he or the directors do not take up the options ,then, I would say MEO may be riskier than I thought..The directors know what has been going on ..for a long time now...The punters have not been privvy to their knowledge.

5.

It appears to me, that, the Preferred Farminee is playing with MEO...

The Farminee management were just about and expected to sign off on the deal prior to the AGM on the 18th but..at the last minute..they needed their board to ratify the final terms at their next board meeeting in mid December....

GIVE ME A BREAK... Jurgen and others must have known this at least 2 weeks before the AGM and scrambled to organise the Insto share placement..no time for a punters SPP in view if the tight deadline to meet to Artemis 31 Dec 09 drilling commitment.

My question is ..Who is pulling whose string here! Has the preferred Farminee outsmarted MEO in round 1..or has MEO rebounded off the ropes , bloodied, with the Placement on the chin , to out manouvre the Farminee prior to their theoretical decision mid December?? Or is the Fariminee just playing Big Bully Boys games...whilst playing the "nice Guy" for a few months now...Spider and the Fly!

If , come mid December, the proposed Farminee has not decided formally then it is my view that MEO should do a Pat Malone..that is GO it Alone..time to bugger off imposters and tyre kickers...Shareholders have had enough of the manipulation.

This is a cut throat business with some very ,very serious money ,people and politics behind it all..worlwide..some of these companies have much a higher turnover than many soveriegn countries..Rulers in their own sphere! So who is more likely to come out in Front..MEO or the Farminee.

Maybe , as I said before, the best deal was not always going to be "the best deal". It may well be a case of MEO having to go back to some of the other contenders "Cap in Hand" if they are not careful..it may be too late..if that's the way it pans out.

If that's the way it pans out then you can be assured that MEO's position will be compromised..unfortunately for average shareholders.

6: My Thoughts:

Maybe MEO have outsmarted everyone..Unlikely
Maybe MEO have outsmarted themselves..Possibly
Maybe MEO have outsmarted the Farminee..unlikely
Maybe MEO have outsmarted the punters..very likely

Q: Will the directors take up options@50c? A: No certainty!

Q: What will happen if they do not? A: Punters revolt

Q: What will happen if another delay? A: Blue Murder!!

Q: Will the SP plummet if Delay?: Is the Pope Catholic?

In the final analysis the best thing to do is not to dwell on what could or should have been done, but , to move forward and implement loss making mechanisms ..in case!

This is a speccie after all.

The Drilling will not occur until late next year..a long time from now and unless the Farminee deal is exceptional then extreme caution needs to be adhered to..in my case.

Otherwise it will be along haul of sideways action with not much news in between..unless they flog TS and NT68 and other bits and pieces...and then what?

Sorry to be objective..but the only way to be proven wrong is by DEFINATIVE REGULAR BOARD UPDATES THAT MAKE SENSE!

In any case ..all of the above opinions are my personal opinions and should not be taken as any form of advice or as anything other than conjecture on my part.

As always : Caveat Emptor and DYODD.

'Ya Gotta Know when to fold Em and know when to Hold Em!'
Harder to fold than hold.

Cheers

Pardon spelling and Grammar.

HR