Hey guys,Thought I may weigh in here with some of my thoughts....

Hey guys,

Thought I may weigh in here with some of my thoughts. I've been lying low on HC the last few months, as life has been pretty hectic!

On the topic of GPR performance, there's no doubt of the longer-term potential in this segment for EML. I think they are in a much better position than most to weather the current storm and come out of it in a strong position.

Short-term GPR performance (as will be noted in the half-yearly soon) is a tricky one to predict. If we have a look at past reports, we can see that a lot of GPR revenue comes from the following:
- EML Australia salary packaging
- EML Gaming (Aus/Europe/US)
- EML BaaS/ControlPay (I'd assume this is a small contributor at the moment)
- PFS BaaS
- PFS Government programmes
- PFS multi-currency (not currently contributing much)

FY21 Q1 had GPR revenue of $2389m (thanks to PFS), and an increase of 16% from FY20 Q4. And Q1 was noted historically as the poorest performing quarter for EML GPR.

Some con's for the last quarter:
- There was easing of lockdowns between FY20 Q4 and end of FY21 Q1 I feel, which may have contributed partially to the 16% increase in GPR.
- During FY21 Q2, lockdowns came back pretty hard in the UK and parts of Australia.
- I'm unsure of the effect on Salary Packaging when people are working from home. Surely revenues drop because people aren't out buying meals and using transport etc. I think a poorer performance in this segment may be offset by EML continuing to transition more customers over to their platform during this period.

Some pro's for the last quarter:
- PFS Jersey stimulus programme was in full flight
- EML gaming customers will continue to perform well in the current climate (and exceptionally well for some customers such as VGW)
- PFS BaaS and Government programmes seem to be more essential services that continue to provide organic growth.

I think we will see some modest growth in the GPR segment for FY21 Q2 (compared to Q1), which will underline the resilient nature of this segment for EML investors. I would estimate around 10-20% growth, but then again, I'm never right with my predictions haha.

I agree @pat_ey, EML will need to see some accelerated growth this year to increase their international visibility and their market cap. And I would think this accelerated growth will need to come from the Fintech/BaaS and Gaming space.