Yes biggest concern if banks foreclose
But do they really want to? Especially with assets that are still actually cashflow positive. Banks have heaps of loans (obviously) and thats how they make money, they dont want to foreclose (and report to media) and then fire sale assets.
They will only do so if they think they wont get their money back. The CRE loans are risky, BUT still requires the equity investor to through in the towel. So asset prices need to decline by 15-20% to really question collectability
So on both concerns
1. Banks
2. Owners throw in towel
I think we some way from major trouble.
They have some time, plus if they raise just a smidgen of cash through a few sales soon (plus cash on hand + cash surplus accumulating + close out FX contracts) I think they can scrape through.
And if in 1-2 months everything isnt so negative maybe the price might move up to say 50% of NTA (i.e 50c ++)
Even better some one take over RE and put in equity/increase ownership (look at RRT with Kinghorn, RJT with Goldman)
Be fearful when everyone is greeedy
be greedy when everyone is fearful
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