I think the market still may be a little sceptical of the recent...

I think the market still may be a little sceptical of the recent announcement...

This is perhaps understandable given some of the "shonky" announcements from other biotechs of late.

In my opinion however, when an internationally respected research group such as that at Monash makes a "Major discovery for diabetes sufferers"...one would be foolish to dismiss it as hype.

Anyway, we have seen massive turnover considering how few are on issue, especially with so few actually available in the market.

Looking at the top 20, (top 5 in particular) escrowed shares and those held by long termers...my guess is we are looking at less than 15m freely being churned and possibly even less when you consider a good number of the recent buyers will also have a longer term view.

Importantly, the quality and type of people behind this company would tend to attract more of your longer term investor, rather than many of the typical pump and dump teams typical of many of the other less than "quality" biotechs.

Anyway, assuming 15m liquid shares, recent trading volumes can be put in context.

In the last 3 sessions, we have seen 28m, 5m and 5m traded...thats possibly more than double those available suggesting a fairly healthy churn-rate?

For those interested, of the 38m total traded in the last 3 sessions, 23.2m have trade at or below 13c, whilst just 15m have trade above 13c.

I find the figure above 13c very interesting...

I think it is safe to assume that of the 15m bought over 13c, 1 third of these buyers would be medium to long term holders, as such, we can possibly remove 5m from any short-term overhead.

Of the remaining 2 thirds (10m) shares of possible overhead, most would have been short-term traders, as such, many would have sold on the retrace in order to trade the swings, or simply cut their losses and get out entirely...so lets assume 1 third (5m) have done so.

That leaves just 5m shares as possible stale overhead!

The significance here is that it appears the annoncement driven "spike" has virtually been washed through the market already!

If so, as long as sentiment remains strong, we should see a gradual rise into higher levels, as the price effectively enters a short term period of blue sky...of course, historical overhead may appear just above the listing price of 20c, but possibly not in terminal volumes and besides, that's still over 54% away.

lol...I'll take it!

Cheers!