some key numbers

LYC market cap as of close of trade today: $1.5bill
Current rare earth basket price (Mt Weld): $146/kg

JP Morgan forecast FY13 NPAT: $948mill, EBITDA: $1.17bill, Cash: $775mill
Rare earth basket price assumption for FY13: $140/kg

RBS forecast FY13 NPAT: $1.24bill, EBITDA: $1.37bill, Cash: $1.15bill
Rare earth basket price assumption for FY13 $170/kg

RBS forecast FY14 NPAT: $1.745bill, EBITDA: $1.809bill, Cash: $2.92bill
Rare earth basket price assumption for FY14: $90/kg

Most analysts predict a long term basket price of around $30/kg to take affect from FY2016.

Profit forecasts assume roughly US/AUD parity. Further falls in the AUD increase LYC value.

On JPM numbers, LYC is trading on an FY13 pe of 1.58
On RBS numbers, LYC is trading on an FY13 pe of 1.2

Key risks:
European debt contagion causing market crash (20% probability in my view).
Major delays to commencement of production at the LAMP (15% probability in my view).
Near term crash in rare earth basket price (5% probability in my view ? While there could easily be a near term settling of the price to around $130/kg, as long as China maintains export restrictions, limited supply will ensure that there is no dramatic fall).

A final point: While LYC's long term fundamentals remain excellent, fundamentals are less important than they were a few weeks ago. This is an extremely short term market. Thus, if the market comes to believe that european leaders will finally get their act together re greece/euro-bank bailout, a short squeeze will be triggered, and LYC is likely to surge past $1.30. On the other hand, if europe goes to the dogs this week, 72c is not out of the question.