(1) By any reasonable measure LAMP is safe and every key...

(1) By any reasonable measure LAMP is safe and every key decision maker is well aware of this.
(2) For political and economic reasons, and also to minimise national reputation risk, the government wants to confirm the TOL ASAP
(3) For political reasons, and in keeping with democratic principles (a very sensitive topic in Malaysia), the govt also wants to be seen be giving a due consideration to the claims of the anti-lynas groups.
(4) On the April 17 meeting, no new anti-lamp claims were presented to the minister. What was presented was mostly technical data (much of it quite detailed, including references to academic journals etc) supporting the existing anti-lamp claims.
(5) For the last three weeks, the minister's under secretaries have been forwarding this technical data to independent experts seeking opinion as to its validity. Academic references, anti-lamp claims, etc are being cross checked (I've spoken with the minister's office to confirm this).
(6) In order to anticipate the timing of the TOL, you simply need to make a prediction about how long this cross checking process will take.
(7) My feeling is that, given that the government wants the LAMP up and running well before it announces the general election, it is not going to let this process drift one day longer than necessary.
(8) The minister's office has been involved in setting up pro LAMP symposia this week. As other posters have noted, I think it is valid to infer that the minister is using these symposia to prepare the best possible political climate in which a positive TOL decision can be announced.
(9) Given that the LAMP has only just been completed, LYC has not been adversely affected by the TOL decision process so far (obviously the share price has taken a belting, but this just provides a great investment opportunity in my mind – I.e., if you believe the TOL will be issued in the near term, then you can pay $1.03 for a stock that is worth north of $2 post TOL.
(10) While all of this is happening, Chinese domestic REO prices have stabilised and are starting to creep up again. In the medium term, this will eventually put upward pressure on the FOB price.
(11) Assuming a $40/kg long term FOB price, consensus estimates value LYC at between $2.30 and $2.90. Assuming a $50 long term FOB price, consensus estimates value LYC at between $3.50-$4. The FOB price is currently around $63 according to metal pages, although asian metals pages actually cite a materially higher price of $69/kg. At the present time (with anticipated significant heavy RE short falls over the next couple of years and increasing environmental costs putting upward pressure on the chinese domestic price), a $50 long term basket price looks sensible and conservative.