some light

Dear friends,

First congrats to Hotcopper to bring back the old format ...

Nobody knows but lets try bring some light to discussion

Possibilities

a) a big holder is selling.

That alternative is the "best" because the effect of this sell in few weeks disapear and as soon they stop sell,slowly the market identify the botton and run to buy and oportunistic price (and of course that alternative we will know as soon a announcement comes 9informning they sold X % of their holdings.

b) several important holders (and several means every days some people arrive to the same conclusion ,day after day) that the lost of EMU give to Kar just a Poseidon value,and also poseidon value,in spite we talk about 5 to 7 TCF because at that stage we have proven just 3 the value is 4.90 (plus 1 cash money),.
If that theory is happening the main catalyst to reverse will be
b1- good result in next Brazil well
b2- a upgrade at Poseidon ressources
b3- a announcement like Petrochina offer buy X% of Kar-Poseidon
That alternative also havbe a very clear day limit,because as much the price drops and people sell ,more we come close to exaustion price,.Meaning come to certain stage the holders are just not interest to sell..(in general the thoughts is...I lost that money at that stage..I prefe keep and let see the future...That loss I preferkeep that monetize...
I can't say how close we are but looking the "size" of the percentage of drop everyday,we have early signs of weakness of "sale desire"

c) Considering several stocks are low (like RIO-Gold etc) some people may think.,. lets sell and make some money in that ones and later I come back

Well...of course that doesnt cover all alternatives but some...

My personal view about the event is we should have much more investors and funds and maybe this impact could be less than its now...

Botton ?

I thought that was 6.50 later I thought 5.90, 5.50 , 5.00,
4.5 now honestly I refuse to say 3.90 because when you frequently make mistakes show your "formula" is wrong.

I prefer say KAR has no botton but certainly has "fair value".

Every purchase less than 5,90 i'm 100% positive (except the abnormal circunstances) is a very very good buy,because you pay 9 to receive 10.
In positive case (Poseidon prove 5tcf or 7tcf) than the purchase will be the purchase of the year,because we can make 100% until the end of this year.(independent of Brazil or anything else)

I'm becaming more and more convinced that KAR is going to became a producer in Browse and that can create a more long term view in kar (another 1 or 2 years) but in compensation the price we talk something over 15..

My view

Cato