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Australia Will Have 33.4 Million Wireless Subscribers in 2014

?Australia's mobile subscriber base is estimated to reach 33.4 million by 2014, reports IE Market Research (IEMR). The industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will rise from 27.0% in 2009 to 36.9% in 2014. IEMR expect that the largest operator, Telstra, will see its EBITDA margin improve from 37.0% in 2009 to 39.9% in 2014. Vodafone Hutchison Australia's EBITDA margin will also be increasing over the next several years to reach 34.7% in 2014.


"We observed strong subscriber growth at Telstra and Optus in the latest quarter, and we forecast that total mobile subscribers in Australia will increase from 25.2 million in 2009 to 33.4 million in 2014," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Telstra will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 13.4 million subscribers in 2014. Our model predicts that Vodafone Hutchison Australia will have 9.97 million subscribers and Optus will have 9.99 million subscribers by the end of 2014."

"Merger between Vodafone and Hutchison in 1Q.2009 resulted in changes in competitive dynamics. We expect that the subscriber market share of Vodafone Hutchison Australia will be increasing over the next five years. Our model predicts that it will increase from 26.2% in 2009 to 29.9% in 2014.

"On the other hand, we expect that that Telstra's subscriber market share will decline from 41.7% to 40.2%, and Optus's market share will decline from 32.1% to 29.9% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014," said Mr. Assanie.

Their model also forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will remain in the range of AUD 51 - AUD 52 over the next five years. Vodafone Hutchison Australia's ARPU level will continue to be higher than Telstra and Optus. They expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone Hutchison Australia, Telstra, and Optus will be approximately AUD 56.64, AUD 51.33, and AUD 46.95 respectively in 2014.

Posted to the site on 8th February 2010