Some of my rough analysis on SMN

I couldn't resist any longer. Had to top up today. It would have been better in the high eighties but I was dithering.

I did some analysis targeting various scenario's on profitability , PE ratio , target dividend , tax and franking credits and finally likely share prices. SMN has roughly 113 million shares on issue.

These scenarios are based on future earnings down the track. I'm making no assumptions on how long it will take to reach each scenario but I believe at least some if not all a feasible. Just my opinion DYOR.

You will notice that in the early scenario's I use high PE ratio's to target a SP this continues to drop with each step


* Profitability $8.1 m DIV 5c Tax FC 2.1c PE ratio 40 SP $2.00

* Profitability $16m DIV 10c Tax FC 4.3c PE ratio 30 SP $3.00

* Profitability $24.2 m DIV 15c Tax FC 6.4c PE ratio 25 SP $3.75

* Profitability $32.3 m DIV 20c Tax FC 8.6c PE ratio 22 SP $4.40

* Profitability $41.2 m DIV 25.5c Tax FC 10.9c PE ratio 20 SP $5.10

Speculation? yes but we were told that its SMN's expectation to be one of the best dividend stock on the ASX.

I was also interested in the franking credits that go along with the dividend for tax reasons.

Yes the numbers may be a little rubbery but they are just ball park numbers. To me if our technology penetrates the airline industry as I expect then a profit of $41 million does not sound ridiculous.

Just food for thought.

Good luck folks