Another thing that has been bothering about estimates is the...

Another thing that has been bothering about estimates is the production rate from fracced wells, no one knows over time.

At the moment it is all based on conjecture, there is no real data until Arrowsmith-2 Fracs, cleans up, and produces over time. We don't have any profile for the long-term production from these wells either so it is just a guesstimate based on old short term data at a single data point, could be out by a factor of 4 over time. There are some balancing factors eg. production is from the other formations.

In anycase I like to read the dreams, gives me a rosy glow with the SP increasing.

There is risk built into the share price, hence its low state, de-risking with a few months data from Arrowsmith will actual make NWE a shale company, approaching a mid-tier OGC status with a SP to match. Then AWE, gobble...(or maybe earlier)