some phosphate numbers

1/ CII owns 39% of IPL, owner of operating Christmas Island Phosphate mine,Christmas Island is producing 700ktpa and my guesstimate of at least 10years mine life.....
- Forecast Revenue = 700ktpa * $400/t = $280mln
- CII's share of Revenue = 39% * $280mln = $109.2mln

2/ IPL to acquire Chinese Phosphate mine which currently producing 120ktpa and will increase to 300ktpa, reserve is 6mln tonnes or equivalent to at least 20 years:
- Forecast revenue = 300ktpa * $400/t = $120mln
- CII's share of revenue = 39% * 51% * $120mln = $23.87mln

3/ Assumption: NPAT = 40% of Revenue
CII's potential earnings = 40% * (109.2+23.87) = $53mln.

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Conclusion: potential earnings for the next 10 years are $53mln per annum versus current market cap of $39mln.... i see a 10 baggers. This is still a long term strategic buy, the food crisis is a global market phenomenal and problems won't be solved any time soon, with increasing oil price, and demand for bio-diesel fuels and better crops will only keep fertilisers higher....

CII should be heading toward $390mln market cap versus currently $39mln MC, and there are still plenty of upsizes:
- Organic: expansions to production and mine life.
- And Acquasitions such as deal announced yesterday....