Must admit - Even though I was a BIG advocate of BAU, I have been out since it recovered from the lows (Rather then hold and capture all the magic -- which I have watched intensely :)
Anyway - Since making the "above linked post" I haven't really sat down and worked out exactly what BAU is worth now and into the future... BAUs pretty much reached my 18-month old share price target, so where to from here...?
Cheers.
------------------------------------------------ Theoretical DCF - Fair Value 8-yr Projection ** Completely Imaginary - BAU Doesn’t Even have a JORC Resource, DCF is Art not Science **
30,000,000 ton, shippable Ore Resource Value of 1.5 Billion
2,000,000 t/pa ramping up-to 6,000,000 over 8yrs
Bauxite Price Per Ton 50p/ton, peak 70p/ton, taper 35p/ton
Bauxite Cost Pet Ton 29-35p/ton Range.
150,000,000 CAPEX to start the project 40% Equity, 60% Debt
Debt Paid off over the 8yrs.
Avg Free Cash Flow: $36m/pa
Fully Diluted, w future dilution 233,000,000 shares
