PimpCNX advised the market late last year that development costs...

Pimp

CNX advised the market late last year that development costs for a 300MW plant at Bloodwood Ck are in the order of A$350 million. Development costs will obviously vary depending on the energy market (Australia, US, Turkey, Chile), but this should be a suitable proxy for the purposes of a back of the envelope calc.

$350 million will provide an undiscounted return of between $1.05 - $2.25 billion over 15 years depending on the market (with Australia the lower bound, Turkey the upper bound, and the US and Chile in the middle). Assuming that all development costs were raised at a conservative 0.50 p/s (but noting that there are a range of options for raising the capital when the company provides the coal and the technology), total shares could double to approximately 1.4B.

This provides a value of anywhere between 0.75 - 1.60 p/s just for that one project, before even taking into account the value of the company's coal resources (potentially more than 2 billion tonnes), the intrinsic value of the CSIRO technology, and any additional developments. Depending on how much value you attribute to each, the SP could conceivably be double or triple the range above. It also ignores that there are a range of higher-value add uses for syngas than energy generation. It's crude, but the value proposition is clear.

What's more, additional projects would come without dilution, as the company would be capable of funding development from revenue.

Market risk has been significantly reduced as a result of the recent international aquisitions. Now, much hinges on the successful commissioning of the 5MW plant and multi-panel operation at Bloodwood Creek over the next few months in terms of reducing residual technological risk. The current SP will be a steal if they nail it IMO.