Some random thoughts on valuation...

Whichever way I look at it we should have a market cap of around $100M + prior to readout (aka now). The below are some “back of the paper” calculations that aren’t even an optimistic case to me.

Random thoughts only, of course dyor but this stock has surprised me all year with its low valuation.

 if the trial is a success then there are two independent potentially valuable branches which the company will be progressing (being phase 3 in USA and EU approval).

to me either could conceivably lead to circa $200M deal in the not to distant future.

Looking at each path independently:

EU approval:

deal size (?) $100M

chance of phase 2 success (80%)

chance of marketing approval (80%)

risk adjusted MC: $64M

us route:

deal size (?) $200M

chance of phase 2 success (80%)

chance of progressing to phase 3 (90%)

chance of success in phase 3 (80%)

chance of us marketing approval (80%)

risk adjusted MC: $92M

so basically could comfortably be a $100M MC right now and nearer $150-200M following successful trial readout.

just my 2 cents