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There is a set of priors for this result that elevate the chance...

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ViperX1

483 Posts.

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16/10/18

14:40

Post #: 36141305
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Originally posted by 88888acct: ↑

chance of phase 2 success (80%)Thanks for that. A couple of quick questions:

1. What's the basis for chance of phase 2 success being 80%? Based on historical averages, Phase II has the lowest success, with only 30.7% advancing to Phase III.
2. What methodology have you used for the risk adjusted MC? Deal size multiplied by cumulative probabilities? While I may sounds critical on the % of ph 2 success, I am quite bullish here and I suspect the valuation would be higher if you did a DCF and then risked the NPV of the cash-flows as a takeover deal of $300m is extremely unlikely. Suspect they'd be looking to farm down some interest but retain a royalty on future sales.
Anyway, given Phase II has the lowest success, expect a major rerate on success in a few weeks time.

Cheers,

5x8's

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There is a set of priors for this result that elevate the chance of success. Most notably, a) results of previous studies (albeit lacking blind controls); and b) known aggregate wound healing characteristics of the current blinded cohort. Not a sure shot, but certainly a greater likelihood of success than implied by historical averages.

Last edited by ViperX1: 16/10/18

FTT Price at posting: 6.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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