Well thought out and written
@zoulou ... I would concur as most of what you've posted reflects how I feel about the space generally and the participants. One point where I do not agree on TLG is:
"Ability to execute. TLG ticks the box with agreements with LKAB on mining, ABB on manufacturing and Mitsui & Co on finance and distribution."
For me, that box has been outlined but not yet close to being ticked. Agreeing to maybe agree (non-binding) to something in the future after some further study is completed is not ticking the box in my world (call it even less than VW investing $300M in QS for a SS battery design that may or may not be a part of their EV models)
Also interesting is the arrival of $17.45/sh "value" via the NPV from the PFS's and the market's discounting TLG share price by 90% ... suggesting it expects TLG to fail (which I agree is the right way to phrase that). NPV rarely (from what I've looked at) comes close to market value.
But if TLG is trading at 90% discount ... then it must mean that the stock is worth 10X what it is today ... and that means that
@pabs is right as he consistently says that, among other things ...(nope not defending pabs
)
But it also means TLG is "valued" as a miner would be and not sure the PFS gives enough details to reasonably construct a "risked" DCF of the asset and the income TLG would earn (from their portion of the ownership) to give you the NAV. There are so so many risks (not the least of which is commodity price risk) in a PFS that are "assumed fixed".
The above is not criticism. Interesting to me, is your view that the market has:
1. "excessively discounted" TLG (PFS value of $4.6B/265M shares = ~$17.40) by 90% ---> $1.80 as today' s share price.
and that
2. a more "appropriate discount" might be 70% -75% ... ---> $4.35 - $5.25
and that over the next 12 months
3. discount falls to 50% ---> $8.70
The interesting part was that I fooled around with some discounted EBITDA multiples and got around $6 as the PV which is close to the middle of your forward range $4.35 - $8.70 with MP =~$6.50 And as
@pabs has voiced ... a direct listing on US exchange might be a large rocket for the equity price ... might not be any rationality to it ... as in last night QS dropped ~US$12.46/sh which is about a loss in MC of ~US$5.57B or AUD$7.3B which is about 16X our present MC. Does that make any sense on relative valuations ... not in the slightest to me. But it does point out price mis match IMO.
Same logic applies to TSLA being more "valuable" that Toyota+VW+MB+BMW+GM+F combined.
Hopefully all of our musings are correct - TLG undervalued and under appreciated (as to the value embedded within Co.)
(20min delay)